Daily Fantasy Baseball Mistakes

FANFOOD_DFB_101

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How Not to Lose at Daily Fantasy Baseball

 

When it comes to Daily Fantasy Baseball, everyone has their own strategies, but there is one bottom line… You need to score points.

You need build a daily roster that scores the most points or at least outscores one or more opponents. Clearly, scoring the most points accomplishes both goals, but sometimes it pays to specifically plan around what you think other competitors will do

So how do you do this?

Before you do anything at all, you must do a careful examination of the rules and terms of any daily game you are playing. The major daily games assign different values to common events, and roster construction is slightly different from site to site. Just as you wouldn’t draft a standard fantasy team without understanding the league settings, you shouldn’t construct a daily lineup without familiarizing yourself with the scoring system.

Making money in Daily Fantasy Sports is a combination of research and luck. We can’t do anything about your luck, but we can help you in your research. But before you start looking up “Platoon Splits” and “PITCHF/x”, we need to talk strategy.

The only strategy you need is to focus on PREVENTING MISTAKES.

Here they are in no particular order:

 

 

MISTAKE # 1

Not Checking the Lineup

A big mistake many rookie DFS player make is rostering a player not playing in the actual game. You can’t get any points if you buy a player that doesn’t get a chance to hit. That is obvious. Conversely, rostering players atop a batting order will usually give you an extra at bat. The more chances to hit, the more chances to score points, so keep this in mind when choosing who to SIT/START. Always, Always check the lineups before you buy any players and enter a game.

 

 

 

MISTAKE # 2

NOT Checking the Weather

The next mistake that you can make is to not have an idea of the playing conditions for the ballparks of the games that your roster is playing in. If there is more than a 40% chance of rain you do not want to roster any hitters from that game and you definitely DON’T want any pitchers from that game. If there is a lengthy rain delay, you can bet your starter isn’t going to come back out. Why take the chance?

 

 

Top of Page

MISTAKE # 3

Leaving Las VEGAS

VEGAS wouldn’t be in business if the House didn’t win most of the time, and they have teams of people dedicated to projecting scores and making ODDS. Daily Fantasy Baseball Players need to use this knowledge to their advantage. Pick players from the games that the most runs are projected to be scored. Look for starting pitchers tied to heavy favorites, and you want batters involved in potentially high-scoring games. Vegas handles much of the heavy-lifting for you, accounting for park factors, weather conditions, pitcher quality, lineup construction and other trends and traits. If bookmakers expect a big pile of runs to be scored in a given game, you should seriously consider stacking hitters in those lineups.

 

 

 

Top of Page

MISTAKE # 4

Picking the Wrong Starting Pitcher

In 50/50’s/Double-ups/Head to Head Games you want guaranteed points, and it all starts with pitching. Here is where you pay for the ace. Forget the cheap rookie or value pitcher, pay for the ace. Aces rarely disappoint, hence them being aces. Having a value pitcher blow up, absolutely kills your chances to cash. You should always feel more confident in the one-day projection of an Ace starting pitcher at home in a friendly park, against a less-than-intimidating opponent. You don’t always need to build around a Kershaw or Scherzer-level starter each time you play, but you do need to remember that daily fantasy baseball scoring is driven to a great extent by innings, strikeouts, wins and run-prevention. When chasing Ks, it’s easy enough to exploit strikeout-prone lineups and avoid others. So how do you know what Pitcher to buy?

 

 

 

Top of Page

MISTAKE # 5

Not Understanding the Key STATS

In the game of baseball there seems to be as many stat categories as there are games. While it might be fun to you to have knowledge of the latest sabermetrics, there are just a couple of important stats for you to have a handle on in order to win in daily fantasy baseball. Yes, sabermetrics are significant for actual Major League Baseball teams and owners to understand, but fake baseball is more about the here and now and how many points a player can put up through one of the categories. Therefore, knowing certain stats like or FIP, PITCHF/x and BABIP aren’t as important as simple stats like Home Runs, Strikeouts and Walks. You should focus on statistics that are easy to understand.

You’ll maximize fantasy point production from your SP by targeting IP and K’s. This is the outstanding pitching approach. A great way for you to evaluate pitchers is to look the stats Strikeout Percentage (K%) and Walk Percentage (BB%), then simply get the percentage of batters that a pitcher strikes out minus the percentage of batters that same pitcher walks. (K% – BB%). Starting Pitchers with a high percentage that will pitch above average amount of innings it what you are looking for.

When it comes to hitters, Home runs are gold because power wins Daily Fantasy Baseball. If your lineup doesn’t produce home runs, it’s really hard to win daily fantasy baseball games. You should evaluate and rank hitters according to their OPS (on-base plus slugging percentages) and ISO (isolated power) against left- or right-handed pitchers (whichever they’re facing that night). If you can find a hitter with good power facing the handed pitcher he dominates on a team likely to score a lot of runs, you have a player who’s a lock for your lineup.

Start by determining who the best hitters are, then sort out the salary compromises later. The best options are not always the most expensive. If you take an unbiased look at the numbers, you can limit your tendency to buy more expensive players in less good spots.

 

Use Key Stats to Find:

 

Hidden Gems

Don’t fall in love with only superstars and don’t swoon over big-name players either. While it’s great to have a top player in your lineup, it might not be the most cost-effective move. To provide stability throughout the lineup, steering clear of the big money guys and instead targeting players who are scorching hot might be the better decision.

If your big money player has an off night and a huge chunk of the budget was spent on him, it’s likely that another position will also suffer. You will have to spend low at another position, and chances are you will get what you pay for.

Sure, every owner would love to have a plethora of home run hitters in their lineup, but sometimes having speedsters can be even more important—especially considering that two stolen bases account for the same total as a home run and the singles that get the runner on base are three points apiece.

Finding Hidden Gems will help you have your cake and eat it too.

 

Contrarian Plays

Another GPP strategy that is often employed by the top daily fantasy players is to target players that will have a low percentage of ownership. These are referred to as “contrarian” plays or plays that go against the grain. The reasoning for this is fairly simple: it’s easier to separate yourself from the pack when your team is constructed of players that aren’t highly owned. Across the fantasy landscape, you’ll see hundreds of articles every week telling you to start streaking hitters and nasty pitchers who haven’t been roughed up in eons.

We recommend consistent starters and hot hitters all the time. But a lot of the big money in guaranteed prize pool tournaments often goes to daily fantasy competitors willing to roster a low-salary hitter or a guy with less-than-exciting batter vs. pitcher (BvP) data.

By doing the research, you will be able to find these players on your own, but some sites have done the work for you, see why not see what they think. (but I guess that misses the whole point huh)?

 

Platoon Splits

If you look at how most daily fantasy baseball players talk about their reasons for picking one player or another, you will see a lot of “This pitcher is terrible against lefties” or “This guy has crushed righties over his career!” What they are talking about is a phenomenon known as platoon splits’

The difference between a batter’s performance against opposite handed pitching and same handed pitching is his platoon split; a right-handed batter who has a .300 batting average against lefties and .250 against righties has a .050 platoon split for batting average. A batter whose platoon split is negative has a reverse platoon split. A batter with a normal platoon split who is hitting against an opposite-handed pitcher has the platoon advantage; in contrast, if both the batter and the pitcher are working from the same side, the pitcher is the one who has the advantage.

If a player is priced according to his mediocre average and he has significant splits, you can get a much better hitter for a much lower price. The key is to look for platoon guys. There is a ton of information out there and many websites that will give their daily picks for free. You shouldn’t select a single hitter in daily fantasy until you know what type of pitcher he is facing and how he fares against them.

Just like there are much more right handed people than left handed in the world, there are many more right handed pitchers than left handed pitchers. A hitters overall statistics will be dominated by how well they do against right handed pitching, because they will be facing them more. Because a left handed pitching is much more sparse, a matchup platoon split against a left handed starter matters the most, and the left handed pitcher/right handed batter matchup is a quite significant factor in a players projection for that day. Daily fantasy pricing algorithms do not tend to take this sort of information into consideration.

In general, hitters do better against opposite handed pitchers probably because of a combination of seeing the ball better and balls being easier to hit as a hard pull because the pitch is moving towards hitters.

Check the stats for left/right splits and check out lineups that pitchers will be facing. For example, if a lineup consists of mostly right-handed batters, paying top dollar for a left-handed ace might not be a wise decision.

The platoon effect on daily fantasy projections is more important when hitters are facing left handed pitchers, because they face left handed pitchers much less than right handed pitching. Typically, you want left-handed bats facing right-handed arms in good ballparks.

 

 

Top of Page

 

MISTAKE # 6

Not Factoring in Game Location

Although good players and pitchers can succeed anywhere, don’t forget to take note of where each game is being played. Unlike most sports, where every field, court or rink has the same dimensions, baseball stadiums are all unique. Some are smaller and more favorable to the hitters, while others make it almost impossible to knock one out of the park.

ESPN tracks park factors to show which stadium features the most home runs (Yankee Stadium in New York) and which has the fewest (AT&T Park in San Francisco). As a result, a power lefty playing in the Bronx is likely to have a better chance of hitting one out than one playing in San Fran. Always stay away from pitchers competing in Coors Field in Colorado.

The best stadiums to pitch in:
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Tampa Bay Rays

Not so best parks to pitch in:
Colorado Rockies (You don’t want to start a pitcher at Coors Field)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Texas Rangers

 

 

Top of Page

 

MISTAKE # 7

Not Paying Attention to Injuries & Trends

 

Injuries

Injuries can derail a lineup and rotation at the MLB level, but they give opportunities to you in this game. First things first, avoid players who are banged up. This is not the NFL, where guys are all playing banged up. When an MLB player is nursing an injury, they tend not to play well. MLB players tend to hit the DL or leave games early when they have nagging injuries. Do not trust them, avoid them.

Players that are coming off the DL may seem to have value, but do not buy players their first game back, especially pitchers. A pitcher may pitch well, but will usually be on a strict pitch count. Players need to get their timing back and that generally takes a few at bats. Play it safe and avoid them.

MLB Injuries can be good way for you to find hidden gems, because they give opportunities to young players to step up and become fantasy relevant. Lineups and rotations are constantly changing due to injuries, which means the price on players will fluctuate on DFS’s. Don’t miss out on these changes, or you’ll be lapped by other owners paying attention.

 

Trends 

MLB Trends are more than just Who’s HOT and Who’s NOT. Missing out on what’s currently happening in the sport can be the downfall of even great daily fantasy owners. Don’t overlook the trends, and success will likely be on the horizon. This might sound obvious for any fantasy sport, but a hot or cold streak means more than anything in daily fantasy baseball. If a relatively obscure player hits a few home runs in a week, a regular fantasy baseball player might keep him on the waiver wire until he can prove his production on a consistent basis. Rather than worrying about figuring out why a player is hitting just .241 recently but still has six home runs over his last five games, grab that player and hope the trend continues.

In daily fantasy, you want to ride the hot streak as long as possible.

At the same time, you can’t wait on a cold streak and hope it turns around. If a hitter fails to get a hit a few days in a row, don’t bet on him breaking that trend if you can help it.
Baseball is a game of streaks.

On the other hand, the best players find ways to minimize the cold stretches, because it happens to everyone. Don’t be afraid to buy a slumping star player with a great matchup. Star players do not struggle for long, which is why they are stars. Take advantage of the discounted price. You want to nail the night they go off, not jump on board after they get hot.

 

 

Top of Page

MISTAKE # 8

Using the Same Lineup

For Different Games

 

&

NOT taking advantage of Stacking

When playing multiple games, you will probably have a core of a couple hitters in all of your entries, but in order to not lose will you will need to diversify your lineups systematically by getting exposure to different starting pitchers and different individual players who have appealing factors in their favor. Make a list of who you like then…

After looking over the pitcher and hitter stats it’s now time to start trimming the fat. Certain pitchers will be easy cuts. The same can be said for hitters. By tiering your favorite choices for the game, it will make roster construction easier in the next step. You can break the tiers down as simply as top plays, secondary plays and bargain picks if you choose. You can break them down further as well. Tinkering is the best way to determine what works for you.

Now that you’ve done the legwork, it’s time to start putting together rosters. In most instances, you won’t be able to get all of your top picks on the same roster. Mix and match your top picks and secondary picks and see which combinations allow you to get the most top picks on one team. Perhaps grabbing a bargain pick from your tiered picks for the night will allow you to grab an extra top pick on your team. Build a few rosters and submit your favorites for the night. Remember, you’ve done a lot of research, so don’t start second guessing yourself when it comes time to enter your rosters.

If you have multiple entries in Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) Tournaments, you must stack. Whether you stack one team or mini stack two teams combined, stacking is the way to go. With multiple entries you should stack several teams. Stacking several players from the same high-powered offense facing a weak pitcher is a good way to multiply your fantasy points. When you stack, you are looking for a team that could put up 7+ runs and then stack 3-4 players from that team. Then you should try to nail a player or two outside of your stack with huge upside and land that big pay day!

On an external level, it’s relatively easy to understand why people like to stack. You have a better chance of getting points for both Runs and RBIs when you stack multiple players from the same team. If you take three players on the same team in the same batting order, you can rack up points in a hurry if the team puts together a big inning.

For example, you could build a solid Blue Jays stack for power, incorporate either Dee Gordon or Jose Altuve for speed, and split your lineups between David Price and Corey Kluber at SP. On another night, you might have several players that stand out to you as “must-plays” who are all on different teams. Use those guys as your core, and substitute different mini-stacks in your multiple entries. The idea is to not just create random lineups, but to really enhance your success if that core comes through. If your core scores a ton of fantasy points, all the lineups that have it will be in a good position to cash. Of course, the opposite situation happens, too; if the core is terrible, then all your lineups are finishing out of the money. Such is the risk of multi-entry GPP play.

 

 

Top of Page

—————————-

 

 

 

Spiced Lamb Meatballs

 

 

INGREDIENTS

1/2 teaspoon caraway seeds
1/2 teaspoon coriander seeds
1/2 teaspoon cumin seeds
1 whole 2-inch dried chipotle chile or 2 teaspoons ground chipotle chiles
1 small (2 1/2-inch–3-inch-diameter) potato, peeled
1 pound ground lamb
1 tablespoon (heaping) minced scallion (white part only)
1 1/2 teaspoons finely grated Pecorino
1 teaspoon kosher salt
1/2 teaspoon finely grated peeled ginger
2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil
PREPARATION

Preheat broiler. Stir first 3 ingredients in a small dry skillet over medium heat until aromatic and slightly darker in color, about 2 minutes. Let cool; transfer to spice mill. Place chile on a baking sheet and broil, watching closely to prevent burning, just until it begins to puff up, about 1 minute. Cut chile in half; discard seeds and stem. Add chile (or ground chipotle chiles) to spice mill with toasted seeds; finely grind together.
Meanwhile, place potato in a small saucepan; add cold water to cover. Bring to a boil; reduce heat and simmer until just cooked through, about 10 minutes. Finely grate potato into a large bowl.
Add chile mixture, ground lamb, and next 4 ingredients to bowl; mix with your hands until well combined. Form mixture into tablespoon-size (1″-diameter) meatballs.
Heat oil in a large nonstick skillet over medium heat. Cook meatballs, turning occasionally, until golden all over and cooked through, 10–12 minutes.

 

 

 

 

High Heat , , ,

Review are closed.

© 2017 FANFOOD, LLC, All right reserved

Designed & Developed by
SilverTree Technology